Long-term projections

At the Finnish Centre for Pensions, we make projections and forecasts concerning the future of the pension system. Long-term projections span 60-70 years and are published in reports every two or three years.

The most recent report, Statutory pensions: long-term projections 2019, was published on 19 March 2019.

Statutory pensions under review are earnings-related and national pensions, as well as pensions paid based on the Military Injuries Act, the Compensation for Military Injuries Act, the Motor Liability Insurance Act and the Workers’ Compensation Insurance Act (so-called SOLITA pensions). Supplementary pension schemes are not included in the projections.

The projections tell us how pension expenditure, the level of benefits and funding are developing if assumptions regarding the population and economy come true and the legislation remains unchanged.

The calculations are also used to estimate the impact of changes to the pension system, such as the calculation on the impact of the labour market organisations’ agreement on changes to survivors’ pensions.

The long-term projections published in previous years have been compared to the actual outcomes in the report “Finnish Centre for Pensions’ long-term projections: how they compare with actual outcomes”

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OUR EXPERT IN THIS AREA:  HEIKKI TIKANMÄKI, MIKKO SANKALA