Long-term Projections

At the Finnish Centre for Pensions, we make projections and forecasts concerning the future of the pension system. Long-term projections span 60-70 years and are published in reports every two or three years.

The most recent report, Statutory pensions: long-term projections 2016, was published in early 2017 (the Finnish report was published on 27 October 2016).

Statutory pensions under review are earnings-related and national pensions, as well as pensions paid based on the Military Injuries Act, the Compensation for Military Injuries Act, the Motor Liability Insurance Act and the Workers’ Compensation Insurance Act (so-called SOLITA pensions). Supplementary pension schemes are not included in the projections.

The projections tell us how pension expenditure, the level of benefits and funding are developing if assumptions regarding the population and economy come true and the legislation remains unchanged.

The projections are also used to evaluate changes in the pension scheme, such as in the most recent reports of this kind: “Projections on the effects of the 2017 earnings-related pension reform” (Finnish Centre for Pensions, Reports 02/2015) and “Projections on the effects of the 2017 earnings-related pension reform – Assessments based on the Government bill” (Finnish Centre for Pensions, Reports 05/2015).

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