Pension Expenditure and Projections
EU’s pension expenditure projection up to 2070
The Ageing Working Group (AWG) of the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) regularly publishes studies on the economic impact of the ageing society on EU Member States. The most recent projections were published in 2024.
The 2024 Ageing Report is a study of the economic impacts due to ageing on pensions, healthcare, long-term care, education and unemployment provision in EU Member States. Of non-EU Member States, Norway has been included in the comparative projections. The projections of the report span to the year 2070. The baseline year is 2022.
Public pension expenditure in the EU-countries 11.4 per cent of GDP
The public pension expenditure of the EU-countries accounts for 11.4 per cent of GDP on average. The expenditure is expected to be a little higher (11.8 per cent) in 2070.
According to calculations in the AWG report, the share of pension expenditure in Finland in relation to the country’s GDP was 12.8 per cent in 2022. The expenditure is expected to be 14.1 in 2070.
According to the AWG report, pension expenditure within the EU will increase the most in Luxembourg, Malta and Hungary.
Pension expenditure in Luxembourg, Spain and Belgium will be the highest of all in 2070, according to calculations. In Luxembourg expenditure will reach almost 18 per cent of GDP.
During the next fifty years, public pension expenditure will decrease the most in Greece (-2.5 percentage points), Italy (-1.9 p.p.) and Portugal (-1.8 p.p).
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