Pension Expenditure and Related Projections

EU’s pension expenditure projection up to 2060

The Ageing Working Group (AWG) of the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) regularly publishes studies on the economic impact of the ageing society on EU Member States. The most recent projections were published in 2015. The group’s previous report was published in 2012.

The 2015 Ageing Report is a study of the economic impacts due to ageing on pensions, healthcare, long-term care, education and unemployment provision in 28 EU Member States. Of non-EU Member States, Norway has been included in the comparative projections. The projections of the report span to the year 2060. The baseline year is 2013.

Public pension expenditure in the EU28 countries 11.3 per cent of GDP

The statutory pension expenditure of the EU28 countries accounts for 11.3 per cent of GDP on average.  The expenditure is expected to be at the same level (11.2 per cent) in 2060. In 2012 projection the expenditure was projected to reach 13% by 2060.

According to calculations in the AWG report, in Finland the share of pension expenditure in relation to the GDP was 12,9 per cent in 2013. The expenditure is expected to be at the same level in 2060 though reaching its peak in 2030, at 15 per cent of GDP.

According to the AWG report, pension expenditure within the EU will increase the most, over 3 percentage points, in Luxemburg, Slovenia, Belgium and Malta.

Pension expenditure in Slovenia and Belgium will be the highest of all in 2060, according to calculations: over 15 per cent of GDP.

During the next almost fifty years, public pension expenditure will decrease the most in Croatia (-3.9 percentage points), Latvia (-3.1 p.p) and Denmark (-3.1). By 2060, expenditure will have decreased also in France (-2.8), Italy, (-1.9) and Greece (-1.9).

Public pension expenditure 2013-2060, % of GDP



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