The data used to set the initial values for the projection come from:

• the Finnish Centre for Pensions’ statistical database,
• the Finnish Centre for Pensions’ pension register,
• the incomes register shared by the earnings-related pension system,
• the joint statistics of Kela and the Finnish Centre for Pensions,
• the Finnish Centre for Pensions’ PAYG data relating to earnings-related pensions,
• Statistics Finland’s statistical database,
• The Finnish Pension Alliance TELA’s statistical database,
• Kela’s Info Tray,
• Keva’s annual reports, and
• FIN-FSA Financial Supervisory Authority. 

Based on this data, the long-term projection (LTP) model progresses in line with given assumptions.

Assumptions of the 2026 long-term projection

Total fertility	1.30
Net migration	24,000 persons per year
Short-term economic forecast period	2026–2031
Inflation after the short-term economic forecast period	2.0% per year
Real growth in labour expenditure after the short-term economic forecast period	1.1% per year
Adjustments of pensions paid by Kela after the short-term economic forecast period	Half of the real growth in earnings
Real return on pension assets in the medium term	3.18% per year (2026–2035)
Real return on pension assets in the long term	3.75% per year (from 2036)

The population projection underlying the calculations in this report was prepared by the Finnish Centre for Pensions in spring 2026. The projection is partly based on Statistics Finland’s 2024 population projection, although several key assumptions differ from that projection.

The total fertility rate is assumed to be 1.3 throughout the projection period, and net migration 24,000 persons per year from 2026 onwards. In the population projection used, the baseline level of mortality is based on the average age- and sex-specific mortality rates for 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025. Mortality in Finland was exceptionally high during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in 2022, and therefore the mortality rates for that year have not been used when determining the baseline. The assumed rate of decline in mortality is the same as in Statistics Finland’s 2024 projection.

In the employment projection, the current structural unemployment rate is assumed to be 8%. For the years 2026–2030, unemployment is assumed to be cyclical and higher than its long-term level. The impact of immigration on the employment rate has been taken into account at an aggregate level, assuming that the employment rates of the foreign-born relative to those of the total population correspond to their average level in 2020–2023. In age- and sex-standardised terms, the employment rate of those aged 20–64 is around 10 percentage points lower for the foreign-born than for the total population.

The long-term assumption for inflation is 2.0% per year, and for real growth in labour costs 1.1% per year.

Increases in the statutory retirement ages do not fully translate into increases in the effective retirement age; in the oldest age groups, the incidence of disability pensions also rises.

The incidence of new disability pensions by age group is assumed to decline over time. This assessment is based on an observed trend. The decline is likely to be related to changes in work tasks, higher educational level of the workforce, and improvements in overall public health.

The assumed real return on pension assets is 3.18% per year up to 2035, and 3.75% per year thereafter. The higher assumed return compared with earlier projections is largely due to the recent pension reform, which has enabled a more risk-oriented investment strategy. In the medium term, the return assumption is primarily based on forward-looking indicators that take into account current market valuations and interest rate levels. Long-term return assumptions are based on historical returns.