Long-term pension expenditure and financing projections

One of the statutory tasks of the Finnish Centre for Pensions is to evaluate the development of pensions and their financing. We continuously evaluate the development of future pension expenditure, funds and contributions. The long-term projection (LTP) model is used to make projections that span about 70 years into the future.

We publish the results of our long-term projections every 2-3 years in our publication series. In addition to these regular publications, we also project, for example, the effects of pension reforms.

The long-term projections of pension expenditure covers both private and public sector pensions, the national pension and the guarantee pension. The LTP model simulates the operations of the statutory pension scheme. The projections are based on a technique that measures average values in terms of age and gender.

We make detailed financing projections of private sector earnings-related pensions. In addition, we also make standard projections of municipal pensions and the entire earnings-related pension scheme.

For more information on the LTP model and the complementary ELSI microsimulation model, as well as on the projections made using these models, go to section Forecasts on this website.

The Finnish Centre for Pensions also projects the pension expenditure of the Finnish earnings-related pension scheme (with EU assumptions) for EU’s Aging Work Group (AWG). These projections are compiled every third year.

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