Long-term Pension Expenditure and Financing Projections

The Finnish Centre for Pensions is constantly evaluating the development of future pension expenditure, funds and contributions. The long-term projection model (known as the PTS model) is used for making projections up until the year 2085.

The results of the projections are regularly published in the publication series of the Finnish Centre for Pensions. The most recent report is from 2016 (forthcoming in English in 2017). The figures below show the results of the 2016 projection.

Statutory pension expenditure, % of GDP


Average pension, % of average wage


The long-term pension expenditure projection of the Finnish Centre for Pensions covers the pension acts of both private and public sectors, as well as the national pension. The PTS model simulates the operations of the statutory pension scheme, and projections are based on a technique measuring averages in terms of age and gender.

The long-term planning model and related projections are described in more detail in the Forecasts section of this website.